Investors aren’t appreciating the full scope of the ambition behind SpaceX’s decision to build a $100 billion spaceport in Louisiana, according to Adam Jonas. The Morgan Stanley analyst reiterated an overweight rating on the stock, with a $300 price target implying more than 70% upside from Tuesday’s close. The rocket maker said it’s building its Starbase launch facility in Vermilion Parish, Louisiana , that’s set to support “support thousands of launches annually.” The construction of new launch pads means the stock is no longer pricing in the “potentially far more aggressive levels of launch cadence” that could occur beyond the analyst’s 2040 estimates, Jonas wrote. The analyst said SpaceX is planning to build 15 total pads. That’s far more than the three the rocket maker already has, and the three more the company is planning to have fully operational by the end of 2027. Jonas thinks SpaceX needs just eight pads to reach his 2040 forecast. “In our launch forecasts, we conservatively assume each pad can only do 2 launches per day, which means our 2040 forecast of ~5.8k Starship launches per year requires just 8 pads,” Jonas wrote. “Point is, we do not need a fully operational Starbase, LA to get to even our 2040 forecasts (where SpaceX has $3.5tr in revenue).” SPCX 1D mountain SpaceX, 1-day The bull case implies the stock is attractively valued at current levels, after coming under pressure since its public debut. Shares of SpaceX were last trading at around $136, after topping $225 at one point soon after its IPO. Stock IPOs typically have a poor track record 12 months out from the day they start trading, as early investors exit the trade. SpaceX had joined the public markets already as a trillion dollar company. “We do not believe investors appreciate the scale of what SpaceX is planning with Starship,” Jonas wrote in a Wednesday note. “In our view, SPCX is attractively valued, trading at 10x sales (70% growth) and 25x EBIT (113% growth) on our FY28 forecasts.” Shares were last down by 1.2% in midday trading.
