NEW DELHI: The Congress is staring at a crisis in Punjab. Does this read as a surprise? Well, not really! It’s the same old story of infighting and power tussle between the state leaders which has played out so many times for the Congress in so many states in the last one decade.Remember Rajasthan, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and yes, also Punjab in the run up to the 2022 assembly elections. Each of these states had the same story unfolding almost in a similar pattern.Step 1: Making of the crisis – power tussle between state leaders.Step 2: Incubation period – a procrastinating Congress high command preferring to look the other wayStep 3: Cosmetic actions – Verbal warnings and probe panels to find the obvious and delay real actionStep 4: The rebellion – a delayed or at times no meaningful intervention pushing one faction to revoltStep 5: The defections – disgruntled leaders leaving the party for greener pastures making it easy for the leadership as they no longer need to actStep 6: Electoral defeat – And finally, a loss in the electionsWell, this may read harsh. But this is closer to the truth. Analyse the crisis in each of the states mentioned above and you will find this pattern playing out step by step – perhaps with some variations. In most of these states, leadership tussle was allowed to blossom into a full blown crisis because of the reluctance of Congress high command to intervene decisively at the right time.
Same script, different state
Punjab crisis
Now, let’s look at the crisis brewing in Punjab.Around 10 days back, Rahul Gandhi – the “Bhagya Vidhata” of the Congress – gave a pep talk to the leaders in Punjab. This is what he said: “You have to fight collectively, Punjab is an important state, and we stand a very good chance … ”Some questions: What has the Congress done to ensure that its leaders in Punjab fight unitedly? What ground work has the party done since its last defeat in the state to claim that it has a very good chance?Now, either Rahul Gandhi was not briefed about the real ground situation in poll-bound Punjab or he was intentionally ignoring the obvious and following the drill of pep talk.Whatever be the reason, the cracks in Punjab Congress are now out in the open. And it took just one decision from the high command to trigger this crisis. Ironically, a close look and you realise that even this decision, which was perhaps over four years late, steered clear of any change and focussed on maintaining the status quo in the state.
Congress crisis
Decision four years late?
Well, it was in 2022 that the Congress was decimated in Punjab by Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP. The grand-old-party came down from 77 to 18 while the AAP went up from 20 to 95. That sums up the story of the 2022 elections.The Congress had four long years to rejig the state organisation and give the new leadership time to prepare for the 2027 elections. Dissents if any would have been handled with time. But then we all know that the Congress does not believe in the age old adage : “A stitch in time saves nine.” So, nothing happened till the next elections came knocking on the doors.And finally when the leadership eventually focused on Punjab – it triggered a crisis. The fact that this decision was to “maintain the status quo” meant that the state leaders who were hoping to get a prominent role were left disappointed.Senior leader Manish Tewari, who was assigned no role in the rejig, raised the first voice of dissent with a cryptic note on X in which he wished he had an antidote for the “insecurities of individuals” and “institutions”. Then followed former chief minister and 2022’s compromise candidate Charanjeet Singh Channi – who had led the Congress to its historic defeat five years back. Channi, who lost from both the assembly seats he contested then, is unhappy with the leadership after being ignored for the post of state president. Channi was appointed as the chairman of the campaign committee but did not bother with the customary thanks to the leadership in a subtle dissent. A meeting called by “unhappy” Channi to discuss the leadership issue was attended by several important state leaders posing a question mark on the Congress’s decision to continue with Amarinder Singh Raja Warring as the state party chief.The BJP was quick to take digs at the Congress. Union minister Ravneet Singh Bittu, a former Congressman (remember Rahul Gandhi’s traitor jibe that stirred a storm) who joined BJP in 2024, took a swipe at Warring. Bittu recalled a famous scene from Sholay. Drawing a parallel with Asrani’s iconic jailor, whose entire contingent marches away with commands of “right, left” while he is left standing alone, Ravneet Singh said a similar situation has unfolded in the Punjab Congress with Raja Warring retained on the top post.He said almost Raja Warring’s entire team has drifted towards Charanjit Channi, leaving the state Congress chief isolated. In a tongue-in-cheek remark, Bittu advised Warring to stop resisting the inevitable, join the “Channi wagon”, and head to Channi’s residence along with the rest of his colleagues.
Result of 2022 assembly elections in Punjab.
Does faction-ridden Congress stand a chance in Punjab?
Well, theoretically “yes”, but practically perhaps “no.”Punjab has traditionally been one of the best bets for the Congress over the years. The Congress has won five of the 13 assembly elections between 1966 and 2022 and as a party has given maximum chief ministers to the state.With Akalis the only challenger for years, the grand-old-party kept returning to power in the state despite controversies and infighting. Even the scars of 1984 – the operation Blue Star and the anti-Sikh killings – did not cause a permanent harm to the party’s electoral prospects.Not any more. The 2022 assembly election changed the template. When Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP swept the state by winning 95 seats in the 117-member assembly, it marked the end of a political duopoly in the state. The magnitude of AAP’s victory stunned not just the political observers but also the Congress and the Akalis, who were anyways on a decline following their breakup with the BJP.Unfortunately for the Congress, this time around there is also a very aggressive BJP which has already shown its intent for the 2027 electoral battle. The BJP, which had “gained” many Congress leaders in 2022 has now added several more AAP MPs in its fold. Raghav Chaddha, the once trusted aide of Kejriwal and one of the architects of the 2022 Punjab win, is now in the BJP with 6 other party MPs – all from Rajya Sabha. As the election approaches, many more may want to switch sides – both from the Congress and AAP – for obvious reasons. BJP president Nitin Nabin recently made a three-day trip to the state to galvanise party workers and make a statement of intent.
Punjab Congress – a timeline since 2022
Too little, too late
And now, let’s look at what the Congress did to set its house in order after the 2022 defeat. Well, literally nothing. It waited for four long years doing very little to settle the core issues that may have contributed to the party’s poor performance.In the run up to the 2022 assembly elections, while AAP went around showcasing its Delhi model of governance and convincing voters to give Kejriwal’s party a chance, the Congress was busy prolonging the leadership tussle in the state. Captain Amarinder Singhand cricketer-turned-politician Navjot Singh Siddhu engaged in power tussle. As the two openly traded barbs, Congress discovered a leader in Channi – a Dalit leader – and gave him the baton. The end result: Congress lost both Amarinder Singh and Sidhu and Channi lost Punjab.Ironically, the Congress did not learn its lessons from the 2022 defeat and today faces an exactly similar situation. The Congress has no mass leader in Punjab who can match the popularity of AAP’s Bhagwant Singh Mann. Kejriwal has already declared Mann as the party’s chief minister face. The Congress leaders say they will fight the Punjab assembly elections under the leadership of Rahul Gandhi and Mallikarjun Kharge. While this is not surprising, what it means is that the Congress will end up helping the BJP make the Punjab election a Modi versus Rahul contest once again. And we all know who has had the upper hand in all such direct contests that have happened in the last one decade.So, the question is: Has the Congress missed the bus in Punjab? Well, one will have to wait and see if the people of Punjab are ready for another stint of Congress rule in the state despite all these hiccups.
