Morgan Stanley’s enthusiasm for humanoid robots has cooled lately — and its analysts think technical challenges might not be the only barrier to the androids’ widespread adoption. The bank had upgraded its forecast for China’s humanoid robot shipments twice in 2026, expecting 50,000 units to ship this year, nearly double its previous projection of 28,000. The bank had already doubled its initial January forecast of 14,000 units. But Morgan Stanley has tempered its optimism on the sector, with analysts now asking whether robots have a PR problem. Writing in a note published on Tuesday, the bank said that the robot industry faces several headwinds that could slow growth. “Even before any meaningful deployment, humanoids are often framed publicly – by both investors and companies – as direct substitutes for workers rather than tools for hazardous, repetitive or labor-constrained tasks,” the analysts wrote. “The industry’s social license to deploy may matter just as much as technical performance.” Morgan Stanley’s analysts added that investors – themselves included – have in the past overlooked the potential for robots to complement, not replace human workers, as well as the potential to relieve labor shortages, transform the viability of greenfield facilities, and support new jobs in auxiliary roles. Policymakers in Washington have also grown alarmed at China’s progress in artificial intelligence and the risks of growing dependence on Chinese technology in recent years. On Tuesday, the Trump administration banned Chinese imports of new humanoid and quadruped robots, saying they pose “unacceptable risks” to America’s national security. Morgan Stanley said the ban risks raising research and development costs, as inexpensive China-made humanoids are relied upon for model research in the United States. The bank also highlighted how investor expectations are shifting as humanoid deployment increases. “In our recent experience, investors have become harder to impress with polished videos and one-off demonstrations alone and are increasingly looking for tangible evidence of real-world return on investment,” the analysts wrote. But while the current rate of commercial adoption is broadening, it remains “narrow” and “early,” they added. Despite the potential headwinds, Morgan Stanley retains its 50k target for Chinese humanoid shipments by the end of 2026.
