Investors are hopeful that first quarter earnings can help the stock market move past the war in Iran, now that there is a tentative ceasefire. Stocks soared this week after President Trump suspended attacks on Iran for two weeks, driving up the Dow Jones Industrial Average more than 1,300 points on Wednesday, its best day since April 2025 (when stocks bottomed last year after Trump soft-pedaled his stance on tariffs.) Throughout the war, investors have been optimistic that companies would weather a spike in energy prices so long as there was a quick resolution, betting on a continued case for equities. The earnings backdrop remains robust. Fiscal policies are supportive of consumer spending. Even the interest rate outlook brightened this week, with fed funds futures suddenly pricing in at least one cut by the end of the year. With ceasefire in hand, the first quarter earnings season that kicks off next week, led by the nation’s largest banks, could be the catalyst to get stocks back on track to end the year higher. But while many strategists still forecast at least a modest advance, investors are wary of a minefield of risks. “This earnings season is going to be the first chance to really level set, hear directly from companies, and test whether that view that the energy crisis, as things stand today, or the conflict, as things stand today, has not had a huge impact yet on company fundamentals,” said John Belton, portfolio manager of the Gabelli Growth Innovators ETF . “If we get that sort of view validated, and we continue to see line of sight to the conflict ending, then there’s no reason stocks can’t get back on the track they were on before all this started,” Belton added. .DJI YTD mountain Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2026 Since the start of the war in February, that view helped limit stock market losses. By Friday, prices had round tripped to where they were at the start of the war . The Dow Jones Industrial Average is now little changed on the year, after tumbling into a 10% correction nearly two weeks ago. It remains 5% below its all-time high, reached Feb. 10. The S & P 500 is also little changed on the year, less than 3% below the all-time high from late January. Earnings expectations By all estimates, the first-quarter earnings season is set to show strong earnings growth. S & P 500 companies are expected to post a blended growth rate of 12.5% in the first quarter, the sixth straight quarter of double digit growth, according to FactSet. Nine of 11 sectors are expected to see year-over-year earnings growth. But the bulk of the growth is expected to come from information technology, set to jump 44%, underlining the sector’s importance to the market, according to FactSet. Apart from tech and materials, however, expectations for the rest of the market are moderate at best. One warning sign this week came from Delta Air Lines, with CEO Ed Bastian saying the carrier will “meaningfully reduce” near-term capacity growth plans due to rising jet fuel costs. Many advisors recommend treading carefully, arguing that the volatility from the U.S.-Iran war isn’t over yet, but that a strong earnings season could give investors the good news they’ve been missing for six weeks. “If we can see tensions die down in the Middle East, I think there’s an opportunity for markets to rebound,” said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial. Big banks kick off the coming earnings season next week, with Goldman Sachs , Citigroup , Wells Fargo , JPMorgan Chase , Morgan Stanley and Bank of America all reporting. Netflix , BlackRock , and Johnson & Johnson are among other notable companies set to report results. Week ahead calendar All times ET. Monday, April 13 10:00 a.m. Existing Home Sales (March) Earnings: Goldman Sachs Group Tuesday, April 14 6:00 a.m. NFIB Small Business Index (March) 8:15 a.m. ADP Weekly Employment change (03/28) 8:30 a.m. Producer Price Index (March) Earnings: Citigroup , Wells Fargo , JPMorgan Chase , Johnson & Johnson , BlackRock Wednesday, April 15 8:30 a.m. Export Price Index (March) 8:30 a.m. Import Price Index (March) 8:30 a.m. Empire State Index (April) 10:00 a.m. NAHB Housing Market Index (April) Earnings: J.B. Hunt Transport Services , Morgan Stanley , Bank of America , The PNC Financial Services Group , M & T Bank , Progressive Thursday, April 16 8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (04/11) 8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed Index (April) 9:15 a.m. Capacity Utilization (March) 9:15 a.m. Industrial Production (March) Earnings: Netflix , Prologis , Abbott Laboratories , The Travelers Cos. , U.S. Bancorp , KeyCorp , The Bank of New York Mellon , Citizens Financial Group , PepsiCo , Charles Schwab , Marsh & McLennan Friday, April 17 Earnings: State Street , Fifth Third Bancorp , Regions Financial , Truist Financial
