Gold price prediction today: Gold prices are falling and multiple global factors are likely to continue adding pressure, says Manav Modi, Senior Analyst, Commodity Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. Let’s take a look:Gold enters the week on a weak footing, with prices around Rs 148,300 after extending the decline from the recent Rs 160,000–162,000 region. The daily structure shows that the recovery attempt has lost momentum, with prices now moving below the Rs 150,000 psychological level and testing an important support area.From the Bollinger Bands perspective, the 20-day average is placed at Rs 152,291, while the upper band stands at Rs 155,324 and the lower band at Rs 149,258. Gold has slipped marginally below the lower band, indicating strong near-term selling pressure, although this also makes the Rs 147,500–149,000 region important for possible stabilization.Based on the recent upswing from ~ Rs 140,000 to Rs 162,000, Fibonacci retracement levels are placed around Rs 156,800 (23.6%), Rs 153,600 (38.2%), Rs 151,000 (50%) and Rs 148,400 (61.8%). Prices are currently testing the 61.8% retracement, making Rs 148,000–148,500 the key decision zone for the week.Holding this area could produce a recovery towards Rs 151,000 and Rs 152,300–153,600, while a sustained break below Rs 148,000 could extend the correction towards Rs 145,000 and Rs 142,000–143,000.Overall, the weekly bias remains range bound. Immediate support is placed at Rs 148,000, followed by Rs 145,000 and Rs 142,000–143,000, while resistance is seen at Rs 151,000, Rs 152,300–153,600 and Rs 155,300–156,800.Gold enters the week under pressure, extending last week’s decline, as elevated crude oil prices, resilient US economic activity and expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening continue to outweigh underlying safe-haven support.Brent crude remains elevated as negotiations surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved, with disagreement between US and Iran over conditions and timeline for reopening the critical shipping route keeping energy-supply risks elevated.Sustained strength in crude has complicated the inflation outlook and strengthened concerns that energy-driven price pressures could remain persistent despite earlier signs of disinflation.Federal Reserve officials have meanwhile maintained a hawkish stance following the recent 25-basis-point rate increase, with Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack highlighting stronger economic growth, government debt concerns and the possibility of additional rate increases as factors contributing to elevated long-term Treasury yields. Markets are currently pricing around a 65% probability of another rate hike in October, keeping upward pressure on yields and increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.The narrowing spread between two- and 10-year Treasury yields also points towards further curve flattening as markets reassess the balance between near-term tightening and longer-term growth expectations.Gold therefore remains caught between elevated real yields and tighter monetary-policy expectations on one side, and persistent geopolitical, fiscal and debt-related uncertainty on the other. For the week ahead, crude oil, Treasury yields, Fed communication and US-Iran negotiations are likely to remain the principal drivers.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, or any other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts and analysts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India.)
