Don’t expect the rough ride in SpaceX to be over anytime soon. SpaceX has yet to trade on the public markets for a full week, but the stock has already proven volatile. After a blockbuster IPO on June 12, the Elon Musk-led rocket maker has seen its market cap surge past Amazon and even Microsoft , before dropping back down. The stock is already more than 28% off its recent peak, and even briefly fell below its $150 opening price. It was last at around $161. That selling pressure isn’t expected to let up anytime soon , especially as lockup expiration periods expire and more insiders gain permission to sell. SpaceX debuted with only about 5% of its roughly 13 billion outstanding shares, meaning more will become available in the coming months — and add to the volatility around the stock. Typically, companies opt for lock-up periods of 90 to 180 days to prevent insiders from selling the stock immediately after its IPO, and to help stabilize the stock. But SpaceX has opted for a schedule that allows lock-ups to expire over time. SPCX 1M mountain SPCX under pressure Here are the key dates to watch, according to 22V Research: Around Aug. 10: +20% (with an additional 10% if stock is > $175) Near Aug. 21: +7% Around Sept. 10: +7% Near Sept. 25: +7% Around Oct. 10: +7% Roughly on Oct. 25: +7% Near early Nov. (Q3 earnings): +28% Around Dec. 9: remaining shares for most insiders With each new release on the calendar, investors can expect a significant wave of supply to hit the market that will likely drive the price down — meaning investors can find better positions to buy into SpaceX than where it is currently. 22V Research’s Jeff Jacobson said he’s eyeing an options strategy around the Sept. 18 expiration period. That’s when he would consider a call sale trade of $200 calls at $25, or an agreement to collect $25 per share by selling SpaceX exactly at $200 between now and the expiration date. “Given what we know about the potential overhang from the upcoming unlocks by September 10, I believe selling calls against an existing (or any new buys) in SPCX should be strongly considered,” he wrote over the weekend.
